Analysis of palm oil and soybean meal futures

2022-05-10 0 By

Recently, the price of domestic palm oil futures even exceeded that of soybean oil futures, which attracted the attention of the author.The logic behind the rise in palm oil prices is that the pandemic has caused labor shortages and production declines in the two largest producing countries.As the price of palm oil exceeds that of soybean oil, some netizens joked that there was no need to worry about mixing palm oil in cooking oil.How long will the palm oil rally last?The k-plot will tell us.The trend of domestic palm oil futures is roughly the same with the trend of palm oil futures on the derivative exchange of Malaysia, the producer of palm oil, with a deviation in the range — then, we take the palm oil futures of Malaysia, the producer of palm oil, as the analysis target:According to the chart analysis, the rising wave level of palm oil futures opened since the low level of the epidemic in 2020 (position Y in the graph) is a tilted triangle. Currently, it is running at the end of the fifth wave. It is not appropriate to chase higher, and preventing the market trend is the most important thing.As to whether the attribute of the inclined triangle is termination or guidance, it is not of great significance to investigate at present — even if it is the leading inclined triangle, it will face a sharp decline, and the metaphor of the ending inclined triangle need not be said more.Soybean meal futures, domestic plate and external plate shape has a certain difference, but still can reach a consensus.Cbot soybean meal main daily chart wave counting domestic Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal futures, the preferred scheme is also ABC platform, no alternative scheme can be found:Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal main daily chart wave count the two countries soybean meal futures big C wave are over, prevent the market turn down.These three, such as high volatility or weak new highs, can still maintain the chart plan, in other words, if the market continues to rise sharply, other plans should be adopted.By observing the wave patterns of agricultural products, crude oil, gold and so on, we can draw a preliminary conclusion that we are facing a mid-term adjustment, which seems to echo the Expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet — how exactly is waiting for the market to test.It is necessary to explain that wave theory is not science, but a sort of probability, which compreses the endless possibilities of the market into several or even one path through big data analysis of historical patterns.The cornerstone of wave theory is the natural law that markets repeat the same pattern like the seasons in nature, with differences in the time cycle and magnitude.This paper is only for wave theory research and recording!Disclaimer: the author writes this article in good faith, but cannot guarantee not to make mistakes!The wave count and views in this article are subject to modification at any time, please do not use it as a basis for firm operation!