Wang Shi “prophecy” fulfilled?What will happen to more than 40% of urban households in China?

2022-05-05 0 By

Regardless of whether this view is right or wrong, the housing price in China has risen by 43.5% in the five years from 2016 to 2021, and the figure is still rising, which is really shocking.In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of a square meter of housing is also unattainable.Even so, more than 40% of urban households in China still own multiple properties. Will this group be laughing or crying in the future?What will happen in the future?Although Ma’s father said that China’s housing prices were about to fall rapidly, wang Shi, a property tycoon, advised young people not to buy a house too early in 2019.So what will happen to the more than 40 percent of urban households in China who own multiple homes in the future?Continue to buy a house?Or not buying a house?This is really the problem of the century.It has to be admitted that the bonus period of the rapid development of real estate has also really and effectively driven the development of domestic GDP.At the micro level, urban planning and construction can not only improve the appearance of the city, but also drive the growth of housing prices.Strictly speaking, urban development and rising housing prices are closely related.As a result, the real estate industry contributes more and more to local government revenue, and there are more and more bubbles in this industry.Under such high house price, the house slave is living a miserable life.At the same time, many cash-rich local governments and property developers will enter a new bottleneck.For example, many commercial banks will lower the loan threshold to provide housing loans to many mortgage slaves.In this case, the effective supply of urban housing is decreasing rather than increasing.In addition, due to the imbalance between supply and demand and the rapid rise of housing prices, the displaced households will also use their moving funds to purchase real estate at a lower price than the market.No matter what kind of house slaves, their lives will inevitably be affected to varying degrees.For example, many people have been afraid to quit their jobs in order to pay their debts, let alone talk about their dreams and ambitions.When they get paid each month, they don’t feel very relaxed and happy.After paying off the mortgage and car payments, they still have to meet basic needs with their remaining wages.In this way, can not help but let a lot of people feel that they have become “social livestock”.In addition, since many mortgages already account for 70 percent of personal income, the unreasonable structure has caused some groups to feel inexplicable anxiety.Many people are afraid not only of losing their jobs, but also of falling ill, getting married and having children.Are these really not the best years to buy a house?What does the future hold for the more than 40 percent of households in China that own multiple homes?There are, it must be said, several types of thorny problems they will soon face.Although the general trend is for home prices to rise, in some areas, there has been a significant decline in home prices.This year, in the second-hand housing market, although the number of listings rose significantly, but the volume is not too optimistic.To this, the house property intermediary that has rich experience thinks right now move also is unavoidable want deficit.Even if the unit price of the house purchased is 1000 or 2000 yuan lower than the sale price, investment in real estate and speculators will not make money.That’s because mortgage rates have to keep rising at about 9% a year to keep them from losing money.But this is clearly illogical.In addition, many people fall into the fallacy that housing prices can only rise but never fall.With little room for future price increases, many people won’t buy multiple homes.But once they buy the property, if prices fall quickly, it will make their home even less valuable.At this rate, they are likely to end up with nothing.Meanwhile, for some homebuyers with fresh needs, whether prices rise or fall, the impact on them is not too big.But across the country, housing vacancy rates are high in major cities, so many people are taking chances and buying multiple homes, which in a few years may blow up their wishful thinking.In terms of the upcoming property tax, although the pilot projects in Chongqing and Shanghai did not achieve the expected results, in 2013, the housing price in Chongqing experienced an abnormal short-term rebound due to the advent of the property tax.For some families with multiple homes, the introduction of the property tax policy is likely to fundamentally curb the occurrence of real estate speculation.In the past, a large number of speculators dispersed from zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces across the country, which also exacerbated the property bubble.In the future, whether property tax can be used as a means to deflate the bubble is an open question.On the whole, however, both the birth rate and the marriage rate in China have declined in recent years, which shows that the high housing price poses a serious threat to the young generation.Although the country continues to encourage young people to have healthy children and open the second and third child policies to stimulate the demographic dividend, the effect is not satisfactory.At the very least, even middle-class people with multiple homes face a lot of problems in the future.With the strengthening of national macro-control means, this adverse impact will gradually appear.But whether Or not Mr. Wang’s prediction turns out to be true, there is no denying that China’s property market will eventually develop in a healthy and benign direction.